MLB 10-Year Analysis
I looked back at the last 10 seasons in Major League Baseball looking for trends to watch for the rest of this season.
AL Eastern Division
The Average winning percentage over 10 years for the division champ is 0.595 (96 wins)
The Yankees are at 0.556, which puts them on track for 90 wins, 6 games below the average.
The Red Sox [0.547] and Rays [0.513] are relatively close.
Baltimore and Toronto look to be out of contention in the division.
AL Central Division
The Average winning percentage over 10 years for the division champ is 0.568 (92 wins)
The Twins are at 0.534, which puts them on track for 87 wins, 5 games below the average.
The Indians [0.527] and Royals [0.507] are relatively close.
Chicago White Sox and Detroit look to be out of contention in the division.
AL Western Division
The Average winning percentage over 10 years for the division champ is 0.585 (95 wins)
The Astros are at 0.671, which puts them on track for 109 wins, 14 games above the average.
It is worth noting that the high mark in this division in the last 10 years is 0.617, or 100 wins.
Houston is well on pace to break that mark.
Even though it is late June, as the 2nd place Mariners are 165 percentage points behind,
it seems this division is decided.
Seattle, Los Angeles Angels, Texas and Oakland likely have no shot at the division.
AL Wild Cards
The Average winning percentage over 10 years for the first wild card is 0.568 (92 wins)
The Average winning percentage over 10 years for the second wild card is 0.550 (89 wins)
Current Holders of the Wild Cards are Boston [0.547] and Cleveland [0.527]
The Rays, at 0.513, are in 3rd place.
Teams within 70 percentage points of Tampa Bay are:
0.506 Seattle; 0.506 Los Angeles Angels; 0.500 Texas; 0.493 Baltimore; 0.473 Toronto 443
The Athletics, White Sox and Tigers appear to be out of playoff contention.
NL Eastern Division
The Average winning percentage over 10 years for the division champ is 0.585 (95 wins)
The Nationals are at 0.600, which puts them on track for 97 wins, 2 games above the average.
Even though it is late June, as the 2nd place Braves are 120 percentage points behind,
it seems this division is decided.
Atlanta, Florida, New York Mets and Philadelphia likely have no shot at the division.
NL Central Division
The Average winning percentage over 10 years for the division champ is 0.586 (95 wins)
The Brewers are at 0.526, which puts them on track for 85 wins, 10 games below the average.
The Cubs [0.507] are relatively close.
Pittsburgh, St. Louis and Cincinnati look to be out of contention in the division.
NL Western Division
The Average winning percentage over 10 years for the division champ is 0.567 (92 wins)
The Dodgers are at 0.658, which puts them on track for 107 wins, 15 games above the average.
Arizona [0.627] and Colorado [0.610] are also above the average and are relatively close.
San Diego and San Francisco look to be out of contention in the division.
NL Wild Cards
The Average winning percentage over 10 years for the first wild card is 0.564 (91 wins)
The Average winning percentage over 10 years for the second wild card is 0.552 (89 wins)
Current Holders of the Wild Cards are Arizona [0.627] and Colorado [0.610]
The Cubs, at 0.507, are in 3rd place, but at 103 percentage points out, their shot at the playoffs is bleak unless they catch Milwaukee. If they do, the Brewers likely are out of the playoffs.
The NL West is on fire!
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