MLB Today -- 29 June

I updated winning percentages from Sunday.  Not much has changed since that day.

The American League looks to be exciting in what remains in this long season.  Houston is dominating.  The rest of the AL West appears to be playing for the Wild Cards.

AMERICAN
#  1 — .671      Astros
#  7 — .553      Yankees
#  8 — .551      Red Sox
#  9 — .532      Indians
#10 — .526      Twins
#11 — .513      Rays
#13 — .500      Royals
#14 — .512      Angels
#15 — .500      Rangers
#16 — .494      Orioles
#17 — .488      Mariners
#18 — .481      Blue Jays
   OUT      Athletics, Tigers, White Sox

The National League looks pretty dull.  The All-Star festivities have yet to occur, and yet it looks to be a six-team clash for five playoff spots.  The East appears to be decided.  The Central is a battle in which the runner-up appears to fall short of the Playoffs already.  The West is dominate in the league and is showing signs of taking three of five playoff positions.

NATIONAL
#  2 — .650      Dodgers
#  3 — .633      Diamondbacks
#  4 — .603      Nationals
#  5 — .580      Rockies
#  6 — .513      Brewers
#12 — .500      Cubs
   OUT      Braves, Cardinals, Giants,
                 Marlins, Mets, Padres, Phillies,
                 Pirates, Reds

MLB Today -- 25 June

MLB 10-Year Analysis

I looked back at the last 10 seasons in Major League Baseball looking for trends to watch for the rest of this season.

AL Eastern Division

The Average winning percentage over 10 years for the division champ is 0.595 (96 wins)

The Yankees are at 0.556, which puts them on track for 90 wins, 6 games below the average.

The Red Sox [0.547] and Rays [0.513] are relatively close.

Baltimore and Toronto look to be out of contention in the division.

AL Central Division

The Average winning percentage over 10 years for the division champ is 0.568 (92 wins)

The Twins are at 0.534, which puts them on track for 87 wins, 5 games below the average.

The Indians [0.527] and Royals [0.507] are relatively close.

Chicago White Sox and Detroit look to be out of contention in the division.

AL Western Division

The Average winning percentage over 10 years for the division champ is 0.585 (95 wins)

The Astros are at 0.671, which puts them on track for 109 wins, 14 games above the average.

It is worth noting that the high mark in this division in the last 10 years is 0.617, or 100 wins.

Houston is well on pace to break that mark.

Even though it is late June, as the 2^nd place Mariners are 165 percentage points behind,

it seems this division is decided.

Seattle, Los Angeles Angels, Texas and Oakland likely have no shot at the division.

AL Wild Cards

The Average winning percentage over 10 years for the first wild card is 0.568 (92 wins)

The Average winning percentage over 10 years for the second wild card is 0.550 (89 wins)

Current Holders of the Wild Cards are Boston [0.547] and Cleveland [0.527]

The Rays, at 0.513, are in 3^rd place.

Teams within 70 percentage points of Tampa Bay are:

0.506 Seattle; 0.506 Los Angeles Angels; 0.500 Texas; 0.493 Baltimore; 0.473 Toronto    443

The Athletics, White Sox and Tigers appear to be out of playoff contention.

NL Eastern Division

The Average winning percentage over 10 years for the division champ is 0.585 (95 wins)

The Nationals are at 0.600, which puts them on track for 97 wins, 2 games above the average.

Even though it is late June, as the 2^nd place Braves are 120 percentage points behind,

it seems this division is decided.

Atlanta, Florida, New York Mets and Philadelphia likely have no shot at the division.

NL Central Division

The Average winning percentage over 10 years for the division champ is 0.586 (95 wins)

The Brewers are at 0.526, which puts them on track for 85 wins, 10 games below the average.

The Cubs [0.507] are relatively close.

Pittsburgh, St. Louis and Cincinnati look to be out of contention in the division.

NL Western Division

The Average winning percentage over 10 years for the division champ is 0.567 (92 wins)

The Dodgers are at 0.658, which puts them on track for 107 wins, 15 games above the average.

Arizona [0.627] and Colorado [0.610] are also above the average and are relatively close.

San Diego and San Francisco look to be out of contention in the division.

NL Wild Cards

The Average winning percentage over 10 years for the first wild card is 0.564 (91 wins)

The Average winning percentage over 10 years for the second wild card is 0.552 (89 wins)

Current Holders of the Wild Cards are Arizona [0.627] and Colorado [0.610]

The Cubs, at 0.507, are in 3^rd place, but at 103 percentage points out, their shot at the playoffs is bleak unless they catch Milwaukee.  If they do, the Brewers likely are out of the playoffs.

The NL West is on fire!

Epistle 0723 Reflection

The Epistle

Romans 8:12-25

Brothers and sisters, we are debtors, not to the flesh, to live according to the flesh – for if you live according to the flesh, you will die; but if by the Spirit you put to death the deeds of the body, you will live. For all who are led by the Spirit of God are children of God. For you did not receive a spirit of slavery to fall back into fear, but you have received a spirit of adoption. When we cry, “Abba! Father!” it is that very Spirit bearing witness with our spirit that we are children of God, and if children, then heirs, heirs of God and joint heirs with Christ – if, in fact, we suffer with him so that we may also be glorified with him.

I consider that the sufferings of this present time are not worth comparing with the glory about to be revealed to us. For the creation waits with eager longing for the revealing of the children of God; for the creation was subjected to futility, not of its own will but by the will of the one who subjected it, in hope that the creation itself will be set free from its bondage to decay and will obtain the freedom of the glory of the children of God. We know that the whole creation has been groaning in labor pains until now; and not only the creation, but we ourselves, who have the first fruits of the Spirit, groan inwardly while we wait for adoption, the redemption of our bodies. For in hope we were saved. Now hope that is seen is not hope. For who hopes for what is seen? But if we hope for what we do not see, we wait for it with patience.

_  ---———---———---———---———---———---  _

As one who has been adopted, I love this theme of adoption.  I don’t need to strive to imagine what this looks like or how it feels.  I need only think of my adopted parents, how they took me into their home when I was 14, and how they made me their son.  Initially I did not fully appreciate the grace they showed me and how they strove to shape me into the man I am now.  But with the passing of time and advancement into adulthood, I came to appreciate them and what they did.  This holds true for my relationship with God also.  This Epistle reminds me that I and all Christians have been adopted by God who has worked on us to show us that we are sons and daughters of God.  I dare say that all of us did not truly appreciate this at some point.  But hopefully today we do appreciate fully, and will come to appreciate even more, the depths of the love of God which caused God to reach out to us and embrace us as his own.

There is something else in this passage as well.  Paul speaks of how we cry for the fullness of our redemption, even telling us that the creation itself cries out for that redemption.  We are now in the Time of the Church.  We have heard the fullness of the promises of the Gospel once more.  We know what awaits us.  Life eternal in the Kingdom of our God, in that place where sin and death are no more, where there are no more farewells from those we love, is held before us.  Advent is a long way away, and yet this Epistle reminds is that the Advent cry should be loud and passionate.  We look for something greater.  We long for Christ to fulfill the promises we have received and to which we cling by faith, longing to know these promises no longer by faith but with sight perfected in the resurrection of those who have been numbered among the children of God, joined in Christ, and clothed in his own life.

Father Tim+

Epistle 0716 Reflection

The Epistle

Romans 8:1-11

There is no condemnation for those who are in Christ Jesus. For the law of the Spirit of life in Christ Jesus has set you free from the law of sin and of death. For God has done what the law, weakened by the flesh, could not do: by sending his own Son in the likeness of sinful flesh, and to deal with sin, he condemned sin in the flesh, so that the just requirement of the law might be fulfilled in us, who walk not according to the flesh but according to the Spirit. For those who live according to the flesh set their minds on the things of the flesh, but those who live according to the Spirit set their minds on the things of the Spirit. To set the mind on the flesh is death, but to set the mind on the Spirit is life and peace. For this reason the mind that is set on the flesh is hostile to God; it does not submit to God's law – indeed it cannot, and those who are in the flesh cannot please God.

But you are not in the flesh; you are in the Spirit, since the Spirit of God dwells in you. Anyone who does not have the Spirit of Christ does not belong to him. But if Christ is in you, though the body is dead because of sin, the Spirit is life because of righteousness. If the Spirit of him who raised Jesus from the dead dwells in you, he who raised Christ from the dead will give life to your mortal bodies also through his Spirit that dwells in you.

_  ---———---———---———---———---———---  _

There are two main focal points in this Epistle: [1] The Mediation of Jesus Christ and [2] The Transformation of the Christian.

The theme of mediation builds upon previous readings from Romans, showing how Jesus died for us while we were yet sinners.  Jesus did not do the right thing but rather the graceful thing.  He takes upon himself what we deserve because of sin.  He who is immortal takes on death and defeats sin and death, not for himself, but for us, his beloved.

The theme of transformation flows from that mediation.  The Christian ought to look, sound, and act differently.  This does not mean that the Christian should boast in being different.  We should never forget that the gifts we have received are not what we truly deserved.  If we deserved the gifts of God, these things would no longer be grace.  Remembering grace, we cling to humility, and seek to grow into the image of whom God would wish us to be and has called us to be through Jesus, our Great High Priest and Sacrifice to God on our behalf.

Father Tim+