21 January 2018
NFL Conference Championships Forecast
12 January 2018
Looking beyond Divisional Round
My Projected Wild Card Winners:
Atlanta New England Pittsburgh Minnesota
Conference Championships
Pittsburgh @ New England
Atlanta @ Minnesota
Forecast...
--- Patriots remind everyone why Bills fans
hate New England so very much
--- Vikings make history and get
championship home game
In 1st ever Super Bowl Game that is a HOME GAME for a team in the Championship Matchup, the Minnesota Vikings win the Super Bowl on their own field.
And in the wake of it the Patriots organization and fans cry foul and say it was as rigged as WWE... and in every other city organizations quietly and their fans not so quietly think, "Oh, the Irony!"
NFL DIVISIONAL Forecast
Reviewing the WILDCARD Weekend...
I correctly predicted 2 of the 4 games...
Completely missed the AFC...
Nailed the NFC...
Game 5 ... #6 Falcons @ #1 Eagles
My Pick: Atlanta
Given the fact that last weekend I foresaw this matchup, I'm sticking with my gut and saying the Falcons win this Battle of the Birds. Atlanta wins in large part due to the starting QB for the Eagles. The Falcons also have momentum coming into this game after an impressive win in Los Angeles.
Game 6 ... #5 Titans @ #1 Patriots
My Pick: New England
I'm really not sold on Tennessee. At times, they look very strong. On other times, they cannot click. The Patriots are too strong. I would love to see the Titans win, chiefly because I hate the Patriots. Alas, I don't think Tennessee has a shot in New England.
Game 7 ... #3 Jaguars @ #2 Steelers
My Pick: Pittsburgh
The Jaguars did win already in Pittsburgh. Jacksonville will use this to build confidence. Pittsburgh will use this to flame the desire for revenge. The Steelers, I believe, get revenge and move on in the playoffs.
Game 8 ... #4 Saints @ #2 Vikings
My Pick: Minnesota
As I said last week when I predicted this matchup, I believe the Vikings will find a way to take this game. Minnesota has become a tough place to play, and the Saints are traditionally a different team when away from the Superdome.
06 January 2018
Looking beyond Wild Cards
My Projected Wild Card Winners:
Kansas City Atlanta Buffalo New Orleans
Divisional Round
Kansas City @ Pittsburgh
Atlanta @ Philadelphia
Buffalo @ New England
New Orleans @ Minnesota
Forecast...
--- Steelers impressive versus Chiefs
--- Falcons take advantage of a backup
leading the Eagle offense and shock
the NFC
--- Patriots remind everyone why Bills fans
hate New England so very much
--- Vikings Defense finds an answer to the
Saints Offense; Offense does just
enough to keep Saints guessing
New England takes AFC Championship
Minnesota takes NFC Championship
In 1st ever Super Bowl Game that is a HOME GAME for a team in the Championship Matchup, the Minnesota Vikings win the Super Bowl on their own field.
And in the wake of it the Patriots organization and fans cry foul and say it was as rigged as WWE... and in every other city organizations quietly and their fans not so quietly think, "Oh, the Irony!"
NFL WILDCARD Forecast
Game 1 ... #5 Titans @ #4 Chiefs
My Pick: Kansas City
On paper, there is no reason to think Tennessee cannot win this game. They have won once already at Arrowhead. But the Chiefs don't usually loose twice at Arrowhead versus incoming opponents. So given how close this matchup is, I'll take home field and revenge factors.
Game 2 ... #6 Falcons @ #3 Rams
My Pick: Atlanta
This promises to be an exciting game. Both teams have excellent rushing games. The remainder of the offenses are very good. This game likely comes down to whose Defense can respond the best to an opposing offense with a lot of weapons. The Falcons have the experience advantage. The Rams have the talent and home field advantages.
Game 3 ... #6 Bills @ #3 Jaguars
My Pick: Buffalo
This is a tough matchup. These teams are so similar to each other. Truthfully I think this game is in reality a #6 seed vs #5 seed. I don't think either team is better than Tennesse and Kansas City. And yet somehow in the seedings the Jaguars are better. I think that is a facade that covers some weaknesses for the Jaguars. And whoever wins this game is likely in trouble for what they shall receive with a win.
Game 4 ... #5 Panthers @ #4 Saints
My Pick: New Orleans
Carolina loves to blitz, but New Orleans responds well to the blitz. Panthers lost both games this season versus the Saints, so they are due for a win. But in order to get that win, they likely need to morph into something other than who they are. And if they pull that off, they are not playing to their strengths but in response to a Saints team that suddenly has become well rounded.
13 October 2017
NFL @ The Quarter Pole
AFC EAST @ The Quarter Pole.......
☆5☆ Buffalo Bills ................................ 3-2
NYJ•3 DEN•3 ATL•3 9 [12]
☆5☆ New England Patriots ................ 3-2
NOS•2 HOU•2 TBY•2 6 [9]
☆5☆ New York Jets ............................ 3-2
MIA•2 JAX•3 CLE•0 5 [8]
☆5☆ Miami Dolphins .......................... 2-2
LAC•1 TEN•2 3 [2]
New England is not running away with this division, which makes me happy. As Week 6 approaches, each of these teams could take the division and 3 are tied for the lead. They all have glaring weaknesses. Buffalo must play strong defense and run the ball. New England needs to take the need to play effectively in all 4 quarters of the game rather than just the last quarter. Ultimately I think this division comes down to those 2 teams.
AFC NORTH @ The Quarter Pole.......
☆5☆ Pittsburgh Steelers .................... 3-2
CLE•0 MIN•3 BLT•3 6 [9]
☆5☆ Baltimore Ravens ....................... 3-2
CIN•2 CLE•0 OAK•2 4 [7]
☆5☆ Cincinnati Bengals ..................... 2-3
CLE•0 BUF•3 3 [5]
☆5☆ Cleveland Browns ...................... 0-5
0 [0]
This division is somewhat living up to my expectations. Pittsburgh is in the lead, but not dominant. Cleveland is in last, and living up to expectations. Baltimore has a slight advantage over Cincinnati, which is the reverse of my predictions.
AFC SOUTH @ The Quarter Pole.......
☆5☆ Jacksonville Jaguars ................. 3-2
HOU•2 BLT•3 PIT•3 8 [11]
☆5☆ Tennessee Titans ....................... 2-3
JAX•3 SEA•3 6 [8]
☆5☆ Houston Texans ......................... 2-3
CIN•2 TEN•2 4 [6]
☆5☆ Indianapolis Colts ...................... 2-3
CLE•0 SFR•0 0 [2]
This division is full of surprises. The strongest team, Jacksonville, is the one I believed to be the weakest. Tennesse is in second, as I thought they would be. Houston, whom I thought would be the strongest, is in third. The Colts, whom I thought would be in third, are in last. In their defense, they have not yet had their starting QB in play as of yet.
AFC WEST @ The Quarter Pole.......
☆5☆ Kansas City Chiefs ..................... 5-0 NEP•3 PHL•4 LAC•1 WSH•2 HOU•2 12 [17]
☆5☆ Denver Broncos ......................... 3-1
LAC•1 DAL•2 OAK•2 5 [8]
☆5☆ Oakland Raiders ......................... 2-3
TEN•2 NYJ•3 5 [7]
☆5☆ Los Angeles Chargers ............... 1-4
NYG•0 0 [1]
Was I ever off on this division! I had the Chiefs in last place. Currently they look unbeatable and are arguably the strongest team in the whole league. That said, Denver, Oakland and the Chargers are in the order I thought they'd be among the three of them.
NFC EAST @ The Quarter Pole.......
☆5☆ Philadelphia Eagles ................... 4-1
WSH•2 NYG•0 LAC•1 ARZ•2 5 [9]
☆5☆ Washington Redskins ................ 2-2
LAR•3 OAK•2 5 [7]
☆5☆ Dallas Cowboys ......................... 2-3
NYG•0 ARZ•2 2 [4]
☆5☆ New York Giants ........................ 0-5
0 [0]
This set of predictions is a hot mess! Dallas and the Giants have not been who I thought they would be. The Giants look incapable of winning. Meanwhile Philadelphia and Washington have played better than I expected.
NFC NORTH @ The Quarter Pole.......
☆5☆ Green Bay Packers .................... 4-1
SEA•3 CIN•2 CHI•1 DAL•2 8 [12]
☆5☆ Detroit Lions ............................... 3-2
ARZ•2 NYG•0 MIN•3 5 [8]
☆5☆ Minnesota Vikings ..................... 3-2
NOS•2 TBY•2 CHI•1 5 [8]
☆5☆ Chicago Bears ............................ 1-4
PIT•3 3 [1]
Green Bay is playing well. They are one place higher than I thought they would be. It's not so much a matter of them playing better than I thought they would. The issue is that Minnesota has not lived up to my expectations of them. Detroit is doing better than I thought they would. And then there are the Bears. Inconsistency has put them where I thought they would be. There have been moments when I was tempted to believe I might be wrong on them. They beat Pittsburgh, and nearly beat Atlanta as well.
NFC SOUTH @ The Quarter Pole.......
☆5☆ Carolina Panthers ...................... 4-1
SFR•0 BUF•3 NEP•3 DET•3 9 [13]
☆5☆ Atlanta Falcons .......................... 3-1
CHI•1 GBY•4 DET•3 8 [11]
☆5☆ New Orleans Saints ................... 2-2
CAR•4 MIA•2 6 [8]
☆5☆ Tampa Bay Buccaneers ............. 2-2
CHI•1 NYG•0 1 [3]
Atlanta has not been dominant, and has given opportunity for someone else to take the lead. Carolina has far exceeded my expectations and stepped up to take that lead. Tampa is a disappointment. New Orleans is more or less who I thought they would be.
NFC WEST @ The Quarter Pole.......
☆5☆ Seattle Seahawks ...................... 3-2
SFR•0 IND•2 LAR•3 5 [8]
☆5☆ Los Angeles Rams ..................... 3-2
IND•2 SFR•0 DAL•2 4 [7]
☆5☆ Arizona Cardinals ...................... 2-3
IND•2 SFR•0 2 [4]
☆5☆ San Francisco 49ers .................. 0-5
0 [0]
Seattle is where I thought they would be. My surprise has been that the team pushing them is the Rams and not the Cardinals. And if Arizona plays their hand right, Seattle could be in a three-way fight. The 49ers, sadly for their fans, are who I thought they would be and look horrible!
AFC PLAYOFFS @ The Quarter Pole.......
☆5☆ 1 Kansas City Chiefs .................. 5-0 NEP•3 PHL•4 LAC•1 WSH•2 HOU•2 12 [17]
☆5☆ 2 Buffalo Bills ............................. 3-2
NYJ•3 DEN•3 ATL•3 9 [12]
☆5☆ 3 Jacksonville Jaguars ............. 3-2
HOU•2 BLT•3 PIT•3 8 [11]
☆5☆ 4 Pittsburgh Steelers ................. 3-2
CLE•0 MIN•3 BLT•3 6 [9]
☆5☆ 5 Denver Broncos ...................... 3-1
LAC•1 DAL•2 OAK•2 5 [8]
☆5☆ 6 New England Patriots ............. 3-2
NOS•2 HOU•2 TBY•2 6 [9]
Wild Cards: Patriots @ Jaguars NEP
Broncos @ Steelers DEN
Only 1 of my Pre-Season Wild Card picks in the AFC remains in my forecast. That would Denver. The other 3 teams (Oakland, Tennessee & Houston) are presently out of the playoff forecast. Thus the 3 teams here who are not Denver are current surprises.
Divisional: Patriots @ Chiefs KCC
Broncos @ Bills BUF
Neither of these bye-week teams with home field advantage were in my forecast before the season began. I had New England and Pittsburgh in mind. Both made the playoffs but I now have the Steelers out in the Wild Card Round.
Conference: Bills @ Patriots NEP
This is very similar to what I expected. The only difference is that the eventual looser of this match I now believe to be the Buffalo Bills.
NFC PLAYOFFS @ The Quarter Pole.......
☆5☆ 1 Carolina Panthers ................... 4-1
SFR•0 BUF•3 NEP•3 DET•3 9 [13]
☆5☆ 2 Green Bay Packers ................. 4-1
SEA•3 CIN•2 CHI•1 DAL•2 8 [12]
☆5☆ 3 Philadelphia Eagles ................ 4-1
WSH•2 NYG•0 LAC•1 ARZ•2 5 [9]
☆5☆ 4 Seattle Seahawks ................... 3-2
SFR•0 IND•2 LAR•3 5 [8]
☆5☆ 5 Atlanta Falcons ....................... 3-1
CHI•1 GBY•4 DET•3 8 [11]
☆5☆ 6 Detroit Lions ............................ 3-2
ARZ•2 NYG•0 MIN•3 5 [8]
Wild Cards: Lions @ Eagles PHL
Falcons @ Seahawks ATL
Only 1 of my Pre-Season Wild Card picks in the NFC remains in my forecast. That would Seattle. The other 3 teams (Arizona, Minnesota & NY Giants) are presently out of the playoff forecast. Thus the 3 teams here who are not Seattle are current surprises.
Divisional: Falcons @ Panthers CAR
Eagles @ Packers GBY
Neither of these bye-week teams with home field advantage were in my forecast before the season began. I had Atlanta and Dallas in mind. Dallas is not in my playoff forcast. Atlanta is in this round, but on the road as a victor of a Wild Card Game.
Conference: Packers @ Panthers CAR
This matchup is very different from what I expected. Neither team was picked by me to make the playoffs.
NFC PLAYOFFS @ The Quarter Pole.......
New England Patriots vs Carolina Panthers
Prediction: Panthers win Super Bowl
06 September 2017
Super Bowl Prediction
SUPER BOWL LII @ Minneapolis, Minnesota
Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots
☆ ☆ ☆ ☆ ☆ NFL CHAMPIONS
☆ ☆ ☆ ☆ ☆ New England Patriots
Here is the one scenario in which I will gladly root for Dallas and hope I'm wrong! After all my second favorite team is always whoever is currently playing the New England Patriots.
NFC Playoff Predictions
NFC PLAYOFFS
1 Dallas Cowboys ............................. 14-2
2 Atlanta Falcons ............................. 14-2
3 Arizona Cardinals .......................... 12-4
4 Minnesota Vikings ......................... 11-5
5 Seattle Seahawks .......................... 12-4
6 New York Giants ............................ 11-5
#6 NY Giants @ #3 Arizona Giants win
#5 Seattle @ #4 Minnesota Seahawks win
#6 NY Giants @ #1 Dallas Cowboys win
#5 Seattle @ #2 Atlanta Falcons win
#2 Atlanta @ #1 Dallas
NFC CHAMPS: Dallas Cowboys
AFC Playoff Predictions
AFC PLAYOFFS
1 New England Patriots ................... 15-1
2 Pittsburgh Steelers ........................ 14-2
3 Houston Texans ............................ 12-4
4 Denver Broncos ............................. 10-6
5 Tennessee Titans .......................... 10-6
6 Oakland Raiders .............................. 9-7
#6 Oakland @ #3 Houston Texans win
#5 Tennessee @ #4 Denver Broncos win
#4 Denver @ #1 New England Patriots win
#3 Houston @ #2 Pittsburgh Steelers win
#2 Pittsburgh @ #1 New England
AFC CHAMPS: New England Patriots
NFC West Predictions
NFC WEST
☆ Arizona Cardinals ....................... 12-4
☆ Seattle Seahawks ....................... 12-4
☆ Los Angeles Rams ....................... 5-11
☆ San Francisco 49ers .................... 1-15
Arizona and Seattle will have a legendary duel that comes down to tiebreakers! I think the Cardinals get the tie of the birds to go their way.
Meanwhile in LA, the Rams wonder why the NFL let the Chargers move in. If the Rams really do have a losing season and the Chargers come in and win, look for the heart of LA football to swing to the bolts over the horns. Consider also that the bolts will be playing in a stadium so small that a sell-out crowd would only fill roughly a third of the colliseum. Meanwhile the Rams owner is paying huge bucks for a new stadium for his Rams to share with the Chargers. Oh wouldn't it be ironic if reality is when that new football palace begins that it's the Chargers stadium and the Rams are second fiddle to them.
Oh, yeah, and condolences to 49ers fans!
NFC South Predictions
NFC SOUTH
☆ Atlanta Falcons ............................ 14-2
☆ Tampa Bay Buccaneers ............... 10-6
☆ Carolina Panthers .......................... 8-8
☆ New Orleans Saints ....................... 8-8
The Dirty Birds of Atlanta have something to prove, at least for themselves. Atlanta could have won the Super Bowl, and how I wish they had given the fact that my second favorite team is always the opponent of the Patriots. Atlanta has a great year this year!
The rest of the division is quite competitive. Watch out for Tampa Bay. They will be missed in the wake of Atlanta's success, and will take advantage of that fact.
NFC North Predictions
NFC NORTH
☆ Minnesota Vikings ..................... 11-5
☆ Green Bay Packers ....................... 9-7
☆ Detroit Lions ................................ 6-10
☆ Chicago Bears ............................. 2-14
The Lions will hold with Green Bay and Minnesota for a while. The Vikings find a way to win the division. Meanwhile in Chicago, it's going to be a very difficult year again for Bears fans.
NFC East Predictions
NFC EAST
☆ Dallas Cowboys .......................... 14-2
☆ New York Giants ......................... 11-5
☆ Philadelphia Eagles ...................... 6-10
☆ Washington Redskins .................. 4-12
I don't like Dallas almost as much as I don't like New England. But this Cowboys team is good. And even in a good division (these teams are closer to each other than my predictions indicate) Dallas shows that last season was not a fluke!
AFC West Predictions
AFC WEST
☆ Denver Broncos ............................ 10-6
☆ Oakland Raiders ............................. 9-7
☆ Los Angeles Chargers .................... 9-7
☆ Kansas City Chiefs ......................... 7-9
Well, at least one division in the AFC will be highly competitive. Honestly, if any of these 4 teams won the division, I wouldn't be shocked. It will be interesting to see how the Chargers settle in to LA. Meanwhile, what type of support from Oakland fans will the soon to be Las Vegas Raiders get?
AFC South Predictions
AFC SOUTH
☆ Houston Texans ........................ 12-4
☆ Tennessee Titans ...................... 10-6
☆ Indianspolis Colts ........................ 5-11
☆ Jacksonville Jaguars ................... 5-11
The top two teams and the bottom two teams will be chasing each other all season. Only one of those races will be meaningful. Tennessee and Houston make this division entertaining.
AFC North Predictions
AFC NORTH
☆ Pittsburgh Steelers ..................... 14-2
☆ Cincinnati Bengals ........................ 8-8
☆ Baltimore Ravens .......................... 8-8
☆ Cleveland Browns ......................... 2-14
The Steelers take this division pretty easily. What will make this division entertaining is the race for 2nd between the Bengals and the Ravens. And then there are the Browns. Cleveland will look slightly better than last year, but not much.
AFC East Predictions
AFC EAST
☆ New England Patriots ................ 15-1
☆ Buffalo Bills .................................. 5-11
☆ Miami Dolphins ............................ 5-11
☆ New York Jets .............................. 2-14
I can't stand the Patriots. This will be an ugly division, and New England should have it locked up very early; by Halloween, sadly!
04 August 2017
NFL Road Schedule Difficulty
Most Difficult to Least Difficult
Cleveland Browns -118 [1]
Los Angeles Chargers -108 [7]
San Francisco 49ers -100 [2]
Chicago Bears -107 [3]
New York Jets -91 [6]
Los Angeles Rams -88 [5]
Jacksonville Jaguars -78 [4]
Buffalo Bills -62 [10]
Carolina Panthers -61 [8]
Cincinnati Bengals -60 [9]
New Orleans Saints -50 [11]
Philadelphia Eagles -45 [12]
Minnesota Vikings -28 [14]
Arizona Cardinals -19 [13]
Washington Redskins -3 [17]
Baltimore Ravens -1 [16]
Indianapolis Colts +7 [15]
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +14 [19]
Denver Broncos +26 [20]
Tennessee Titans +32 [18]
Miami Dolphins +39 [+22]
Detroit Lions +44 [21]
New York Giants +49 [23]
Kansas City Chiefs +51 [27]
Oakland Raiders +59 [24]
Houston Texans +75 [25]
Dallas Cowboys +82 [28]
Seattle Seahawks +86 [26]
Green Bay Packers +96 [29]
New England Patriots +114 [32]
Atlanta Falcons +122 [31]
Pittsburgh Steelers +123 [30]
NFL Home Schedule Difficulty
Most Difficult to Least Difficult
Cleveland Browns -118 [1]
Chicago Bears -112 [3]
San Francisco 49ers -109 [2]
New York Jets -93 [6]
Jacksonville Jaguars -89 [4]
Carolina Panthers -84 [8]
Los Angeles Rams -81 [5]
Los Angeles Chargers -77 [7]
Buffalo Bills -69 [10]
Cincinnati Bengals -49 [9]
New Orleans Saints -49 [11]
Philadelphia Eagles -34 [12]
Arizona Cardinals -21 [13]
Minnesota Vikings -1 [14]
Washington Redskins 0 [17]
Baltimore Ravens +2 [16]
Denver Broncos +4 [20]
Indianapolis Colts +7 [15]
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +17 [19]
Tennessee Titans +20 [18]
Oakland Raiders +33 [24]
Miami Dolphins +36 [+22]
Detroit Lions +39 [21]
New York Giants +41 [23]
Kansas City Chiefs +74 [27]
Dallas Cowboys +78 [28]
Seattle Seahawks +88 [26]
Houston Texans +90 [25]
Atlanta Falcons +107 [31]
Green Bay Packers +113 [29]
Pittsburgh Steelers +117 [30]
New England Patriots +120 [32]
Unique Team Matchups
Each team plays a schedule in which there are 6 games within their division, 8 games in which all the teams in their division play all 4 teams in one AFC division and one NFC division. The two remaining games are unique to each team within their division.
The following list is an analysis of the unique matchups for these two games, beginning with the most difficult and working upward to the least difficult.
[][][][][][][] [][][][][][][] [][][][][][][]
Los Angeles Rams [10-25][][-15]
Baltimore Ravens [32-46][][-14]
Arizona Cardinals [26-40][][-14]
Cincinnati Bengals [18-30][][-12]
Cleveland Browns [2-13][][-11]
Tennessee Titans [36-46][][-10]
Houston Texans [50-59][][-9]
Seattle Seahawks [52-60][][-8]
Chicago Bears [6-14][][-8]
San Francisco 49ers [4-11][][-7]
Jacksonville Jaguars [8-13][][-5]
Dallas Cowboys [56-60][][-4]
Buffalo Bills [20-24][][-4]
Kansas City Chiefs [54-55][][-1]
Indianapolis Colts [30-30][][0]
New Orleans Saints [22-22][][0]
Pittsburgh Steelers [60-59][][+1]
Tampa Bay Buccaneers [38-36][][+2]
Carolina Panthers [16-14][][+2]
Green Bay Packers [58-54][][+4]
New York Giants [46-40][][+6]
Detroit Lions [42-36][][+6]
Minnesota Vikings [28-22][][+6]
New York Jets [12-5][][+7]
Atlanta Falcons [62-54][][+8]
New England Patriots [64-55][][+9]
Washington Redskins [34-25][][+9]
Los Angeles Chargers [14-5][][+9]
Miami Dolphins [44-34][][+10]
Philadelphia Eagles [24-11][][+13]
Oakland Raiders [48-34][][+14]
Denver Broncos [40-24][][+16]